Basic Strategies for Best Ball Fantasy Football Tournaments Part 2 of 4 – Draft Value

by Primetime Playaz · Published August 11, 2023 · Updated September 7, 2023

Thanks for joining me for part two of our four-part series where I discuss draft value for DraftKings (DK) and Underdog best ball tournaments.

Finding draft value seems like an obvious plan, right? I shouldn’t have to explain this because I’m sure everyone would agree, but does everyone really understand what it means? I used to think it meant grabbing the deep sleepers and having them become a star. Sure, that’s part of it. Knowing when to draft those sleepers is important because you don’t want to reach too far. The analytics¹ show that if you’re constantly reaching for players, it’s going to be tough to compete against opponents who are getting bargains.

Reaching

Reaching is drafting players before their Average Draft Position (ADP), and bargains are drafting players after their ADP. Something I should quickly address is the difference between ADP and Rankings. Rankings are subjective and ADP is objective. When you’re drafting, make sure you know if you’re looking at rankings or ADP because platforms organize the player lists differently. ADP is the actual average draft position of players based on where users of the platform are drafting them. ADP differs from platform to platform. There isn’t one source of ADP in the industry but some sites such as Fantasy Pros show you a consensus from a few platforms.

What should you care more about, if a player is ranked #100, or that player’s ADP is 60? ADP is the answer. Knowing the ADP is 60 tells me I won’t be able to get that player around pick 100, where they are ranked. I do my own rankings and draft according to the ADP, which helps me land my targets at the right time. I know the players I like based on my rankings and I reference the ADP when needed.

Ultimately, I want the players I draft to beat their draft spot for their actual position (QB, RB, WR, TE). “Beating a draft position” simply means the player exceeds the value where they were drafted. For example, I draft Joe Mixon as the 12^th RB in my draft and he ends the season 8^th in RB points at the end of the year. Joe beat his draft position and provided good value. Everyone pretty much understands the concept, but there are a few ways to look at it.

I personally like to look at the ADP by position (QB, RB, WR, TE), not overall, because I rank by position and let the draft take me where it goes. You may reach and find someone who beats their ADP but will all the players you reach for beat their ADP? The more you reach, the higher the risk involved, and the greater the chance of failure. Still seems straightforward but stay with me.

Draft Day Value (DDV)

The analytics show that contestants who gain positive draft value tend to do better than those who don’t. Makes sense. This applies to Draft Day Value (DDV), as well as Closing Line Draft Value (CLDV). DDV is comparing ADP and the spot where you drafted the player for that specific day. If you draft on June 15^th and Travis Kelce’s ADP is 6.2 and you draft him at #1, you’ve lost 5 points (-5) of DDV. If you drafted him at #10, you’d gain around 4 points (+4) of DDV. All this is based on his ADP for June 15^th.

Closing Line Draft Value (CLDV)

Closing Line Draft Value (CLDV) is defined as the final draft value of the player when the tournament drafts close. If you draft on June 15^th, but the contest didn’t close until August 28^th, the ADP for August 28^th is the “closing line” draft value. The CLDV is your June 15^th draft pick compared to the final ADP. For example, you drafted Kelce at #10 in June, and on August 28^th his ADP was 20. You’ve lost 10 points (-10) of CLDV. No one can predict the future, but this is a good metric to look at for people who draft much earlier in the drafting season. I would LOVE it if I had a nice positive CLDV. If I walked out of my draft with a negative DDV, I’d be happy to find out later I had a positive CLDV. Sounds like some of those guys I reached for got popular closer to the start of the season. Players can move multiple rounds between June and August. That’s why drafting some in June, some in July, and some in August pays off. I call it Draft Season Diversification (DSD). I just made that acronym up, let’s get it trending. #DSD

How far to reach???

If you’re going to reach for players, a good benchmark for the first 75%-ish of your draft would be no more than 15 spots of ADP (link to podcast). Anything more than that you are giving up too much value on the other players, and you may also still have a chance at drafting that player with your next pick. This rule isn’t a hard and fast rule, it’s just a guide. If there is a player you really want to take that you think is going undervalued, then get them a little early. Just don’t do it rounds early. I also wouldn’t do that for several players in the same draft. You’re making it much harder on yourself to win with negative DDV/CLDV.

The earlier picks matter more since those players are typically the highest scorers and most productive. Their draft “cost” or value is more than the last-round picks. Your last couple of picks are dart throws, which may or may not turn out. They are important, but not as critical as your first picks. So the deeper in the draft you are, the further you can reach (within reason).

As with anything in life, anything is possible though. Could you have a huge negative DDV/CLDV and win the whole thing? Sure. You’d have a good story. Leaving the draft with a negative DDV is basically saying you either messed up or you think you know more than everyone else. In other words, going against ADP is going against what your opponents are doing, on average. Maybe you do know more than everyone else and your rankings are the best of the best. If that’s the case, how’s the view from your yacht? In any event, DDV is a gauge and something to be aware of but not something you tailor your whole draft to. You do you!

Earlier I said be careful in the first 75%-ish of your draft. That’s because the last few rounds are a free-for-all all. This is where you may have to dive deep to get those sleepers. This is where you can let it fly. I throw ADP out the window and just go for my last couple of players, no matter where their ADP is. Typically though, I only have one player way down in ADP, the rest are usually not too far off. I am not aiming for the 5th RB. I still want who most other contestants know about, like Mack Hollins or Terrace Marshall Jr.

I like to be transparent and honest in my writing. I waited until the end to talk about Mike Leone’s article because I selfishly wanted you to read my article first. If I referenced his at the beginning, I might have lost you. I did reference it a few times as “analytics”. Mike wrote a very detailed, awesome, next-level manifesto on dissecting Underdog’s Best Ball Mania Tournament. I recommend finishing my series of articles first so you have a better understanding of best ball strategies for when you go to read his manifesto because it’s fairly advanced in certain parts. Again, more honesty…I was actually in the middle of writing my series when he posted his and I almost just stopped and gave up. His manifesto is that good. I tweaked my articles around and tried to give readers a slightly different approach.

If you’d like to check out our rankings here they are.

In summary, be careful reaching, pay attention to ADP vs. Rankings, and get as much value as you can. Also, Mike Leone is a must-follow!

¹ https://establishtherun.com/best-ball-mania-manifesto-a-guide-to-winning-big-on-underdog-fantasy/