Learn from the Winners: A Look at Winning NFL DFS Strategies from 2023

In this article, we dig into the top three DraftKings (DK) and FanDuel (FD) DFS lineups from weeks 1 – 8 of the 2023 NFL season. Top lineups are used from the DK $20 Milly Maker and FD Sunday Million tournaments. This is no cash game article, we’re searching for gold here!

After meticulously dissecting the top lineups, we’ve drawn several key conclusions for your large entry DFS fantasy football strategy:

– Maximize Your Salary: Allocate as much of your salary cap as possible.

– Ownership Isn’t Everything: Don’t fixate on ownership percentages; a few low-owned players are sometimes all you need.

– Target High-Ceiling Players: Prioritize players with the potential for explosive performances.

– Stack Your QB: Building a lineup around your quarterback can be advantageous.

– Projected Points: Aim for players to deliver around 5x their salary on DK and 3.5x on FD in tournaments.

– Defensive Strategy: Avoid pitting your players against your chosen defense.

– Flex Position Strategy: Avoid TE in the flex. Wide receivers are probably your best bet in the flex.

If you want to keep digging for some more gold…stay with me as I cover lineup construction, budget, and ownership percentages.

Lineup Construction

In this section, we analyze the top DraftKings and FanDuel lineups to uncover winning strategies. Please note that these insights are most relevant for large entry tournaments (150 entries), such as the milly-maker, and may not apply as effectively to cash games or smaller entry contests. We focus on the top 3 DK and FD lineups from 2023, bearing in mind the $10,000 salary difference between FD and DK.

STRONG disclaimer. Just because something hasn’t happened yet, doesn’t mean it won’t. These are just observations and suggestions based on the very small sample size. The intent is to help you better understand what the winning teams are doing. Maybe you can find an edge no one is doing and beat them all!

TOP DRAFTKINGS LINEUPS BREAKDOWN
(24 total lineups from weeks 1 – 8)

*Two stacks = Two different stacks from two different games
**Three stacks = Three different stacks from three different games
***Non-QB stack = There were players stacked in this lineup but they weren’t connected to the QB. The QB had no players stacked with them in this lineup.

What does this all mean for the large DK tournament?

– Stack your QB
– Use a WR in your flex
– It doesn’t hurt to use a bring-back player
– It doesn’t hurt to use a RB/Defense combo
– Don’t play a player against your defense
– Don’t double stack the same game (two players from each team)
– While no one has done it this year, you can win with a QB & RB stack, it’s been done before. This also proves these stats aren’t black and white.

TOP FANDUEL LINEUPS BREAKDOWN
(24 total lineups from weeks 1 – 8)

*Two stacks = Two different stacks from two different games
**Three stacks = Three different stacks from three different games
***There were players stacked in this lineup but they weren’t connected to the QB. The QB had no players stacked with them in this lineup.

What does this all mean for the large FD tournament?

– For whatever reason, 21% of the top 3 lineups had a naked QB (no teammates). So while stacking gives you an advantage when played right, you can win on FD with a naked QB.
– WR is flex is most popular, but not by much. RB’s in flex are more popular in the winning lineups on FD than DK. TE’s in flex haven’t been very successful.
– It doesn’t hurt to use a bring-back player
– It doesn’t hurt to use a RB/Defense combo
– Don’t play a player against your defense
– Don’t double stack the same game (two players from each team)

Lineup Budget

In this segment, we examine the average salary allocation per position. Our primary focus is the Points to Price (PTP) Value, which determines whether a player’s performance justifies their cost. How to find the PTP value: Points divided by adjusted price (adjusted price is dividing price by 1000 to be able to easily correlate with points). In other words, move the decimal spot on the salary over to the left three times. $5,000.00 to $5.0.

While our data doesn’t differentiate between RB/WR/TE in the flex position, it still offers valuable insights into spending patterns.

The average salaries alone shouldn’t be overemphasized, as they can vary significantly from one slate to another. For instance, the presence of a high-priced tight end like Kelce can skew the overall figures, causing an uptick in TE spending when he’s in play, and a reduction when he’s not. Nevertheless, these averages do provide a general sense of where fantasy managers allocate their resources. In my view, this data suggests a tendency to economize at the tight end (TE) and defense (D) positions, although exceptions may arise based on the specific slate and player options available. This underscores the significance of the PTP value, guiding you to invest your funds in players who are poised to deliver the points necessary to secure victory. You don’t want good output, you want great output.

DraftKings = $50,000 budget

The average salary spent through 8 weeks is $49,842, which is 99.68% of the budget.

The average price to points value = 4.83X (down 3.6% since week 5).

Based on this info, to win, you want to try and score 4.83X times your salary (when salary is divided by 1000). So if the salary is $5000, you’ll want 24.15 points (5 x 4.83).

Avg prices spent on each position over the last 8 weeks:

QB = $6,408
RB = $6,371 (total = $12,741)
WR = $5,928 (total = $17,783)
TE = $4,246
Flex = $5,533
D = $3,129

FanDuel = $60,000 budget

The average salary spent through 8 weeks is $59,892, which is 99.82% of the budget.

The average price to points value = 3.41X (down 3.4% since week 5).

Based on this info, to win, you want to try and score 4.83X times your salary (when salary is divided by 1000). In other words, move the decimal spot on the salary over to the left three times. $5,000.00 to $5.0. So if the salary is $5000, you’ll want 17.05 points (5 x 3.41).

Avg prices spent on each position over the last 5 weeks:

QB = $7,558
RB = $7,079 (total = $14,158)
WR = $7,071 (total = $21,212.50)
TE = $6,025
Flex = $6,996
D = $3,942

Time for a little fantasy football vent session: I’ve got to say, picking a defense can feel like a shot in the dark. It’s like trying to predict the weather a month in advance! If it were up to me, I’d advocate for removing defenses from these tournaments entirely, or at the very least, setting up separate competitions just for them, similar to the way they handle superflex. Someone should do a study or if you have one, please send it to me. They should study the pricing/rankings of defenses, their ownership, and their actual outcomes. I would wager it’s the most volatile/lucky position.

But hey, I digress. I’m bringing up this topic separately because, truth be told, I’m still searching for a strategy when it comes to choosing defenses. All I’ve got for you at the moment is this: when you get the chance, consider pinching those pennies on defense. The savings could pave the way for you to snag a high-performing player who compensates for any potential point deficit you might incur by scrimping on defense. For example, would you rather T. Hill alongside the Arizona defense or J. Waddle with the 49ers defense? The real trick is to weigh which combo boasts the highest ceiling and roll with it.

Ownership Percentages & Projections

Ownership projections are volatile and differ from site to site. As the name suggests, they are “projections”. Sure, some sites may be more accurate than others but none are perfect. I would use the numbers as a tool to make sure you aren’t loading up on too many heavily owned players (chalk). To maximize your chances in large tournaments, diversify your lineup. The key is to be different and incorporate low-owned players (ideally under 10% owned), while not disregarding all high-owned options. The winning lineups often feature a mix of ownership percentages.

In the early weeks of the season, I scoured ownership projections from all corners of the fantasy world, both free and paid sources. What I found was a wild rollercoaster ride – these projections were all over the map. Players ranged from 5% ownership on one site to a whopping 25% on another.

Don’t rely on ownership as your primary or even secondary focus. Sure, finding the hidden gems is awesome, but owning one, two, or even three chalky players can still push you to victory. You don’t have to wave them all goodbye, as some might suggest. Heck, I even ran a column called “Fade the Chalk,” featuring all the pivot plays. It’s a valuable technique, but remember, there are no strict rules. I’ve learned not to fade all chalk and to focus more on the PTP value I mentioned earlier. I’ll show you here why it’s not an exact science.

Here are the average  #’s from the top 3 lineups through week 8 on FD and DK’s two big tournaments:

DraftKings average ownership  =  116.64% (up 4.80 % since the end of week 5)
FanDuel average ownership = 113.06% (up 4.46% since the end of week 5)

The lowest ownership %  from top lineups on DK through 8 weeks was 80.7
The highest ownership  % from top lineups on DK through 8 weeks was 167.3%

The lowest ownership %  from top lineups on FD through 8 weeks was 68.2
The highest ownership  % from top lineups on FD through 8 weeks was  159.0%

I showed you the lowest and highest because well, it’s a pretty big range.

In week 8, the winning milly-maker lineup had D. Hopkins at 0.9% owned,  B. Hall at 45.1% owned, and A. Kamara at 29.7% owned. All three top lineups had Hall and he was the chalk of the slate. Two of the top three lineups had C. Lamb at 5.4%.  Having Hall helped them win, but having those low-owned players gave them the edge they needed.

As I scroll through the winning lineups, almost every single one had at least someone 5% owned or less. In several cases, they had a few. Many had players over 20% owned as well. Diversify!

I’ve made a google sheet to share with you all that includes the winning lineups I reference in this article. Check it out, study it, become one with it. There are two tabs, one for DK and one for FD. CLICK HERE for access to sheet.

I hope this helps you understand a little bit more about what makes the winning lineups special. Good luck out there in the DFS streets!

Article written by Ryan Baker aka Primetime Playaz

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