Week 1 NFL Notes for Redraft, Best Ball, and DFS leagues moving forward.
My Week 1 Fantasy Football Takeaways
After watching every snap from Week 1, I made some notes and wanted to share them with you.
Depending on what you play—DFS, redraft, or best ball—the reactions to each game are different. In redraft leagues, you want a high floor. In best ball, you’re chasing a high ceiling. In DFS, you’re hoping for both. The beauty of DFS is you only have to be right for one week.
Redraft is becoming tougher. It’s a weekly challenge to figure out who to start and who might have an off game. No one benched A.J. Brown, but his one-catch, eight-yard performance will sink your team faster than the Titanic.
For this article, when I say I’m “buying” or “selling” a player in redraft (home leagues), that doesn’t necessarily impact my opinion on them for DFS, as those decisions are made week-to-week based on matchups. That said, I’ll still provide my DFS notes for certain players.
Best ball drafts are also still happening on some sites, and new tournaments start on DraftKings every week. Underdog has a Second Quarter tournament for weeks 5 – 8, as well. They will also have a second half draft in a few weeks. Because of this, I’ll share how my player takes have changed after Week 1. I won’t have time to break down my reasoning for every player, so I apologize in advance for some vagueness.
It’s important to remember that I have no idea about your specific league settings. A 10-team league is different from a 12-team, and a 1 PPR is different from a 0.5 PPR. Maybe you start two wide receivers, or maybe you start four. I can’t give advice without knowing the details, so for the sake of this article, I am going to use a 12-team, 1 PPR, with three starting wide receivers as my default.
If a player isn’t mentioned, my opinion on them remains unchanged. For example, if I don’t mention Ja’Marr Chase when discussing the Bengals, I have no concerns with him, and I haven’t moved him higher or lower in my rankings.
I apologize in advance for any misspelled player names, as well as any jargon or shorthand I may use. I work a full-time job and am doing this project solo, so something had to give—and that was fancy graphics and in-depth editing. If you have any questions, feel free to email me anything I can clarify: ryan@heavyweightfantasysports.com
Cowboys vs Eagles
It looked like there was rust on both sides of the ball. Hurts only threw 23 times for 152 yards, keeping all receiving options (not named Goedert) at bay. Goedert looked good with seven catches. Hurts’ legs are what won them the game, with 62 rushing yards and two touchdowns. That said, handing off to Barkley may have netted the same result, but we’ll never know.
Redraft Notes:
- PHI: I’m concerned about owning Smith and Brown, but that’s the price you pay for drafting teammates of Hurts and Barkley. Some games will be receiving duds, and that’s just the nature of the situation; nothing has changed in terms of their talent. When healthy, Goedert is probably worth starting if you don’t have a top TE option.
- DAL: Dak’s zero-TD performance wasn’t great to see, but let’s give him another week. Pickens looks like he could be boom-or-bust all season, which isn’t anything new. In deep leagues, Turpin is a better option than Tolbert because they find ways to get Turpin the ball due to his playmaking ability. J. Williams was clearly the main guy in the backfield and it wasn’t close; he’s going to be a steal if his usage continues.
DFS Notes:
I have no concerns playing any of the main guys from either team when the matchup is right. The only cheap option I can see trying from DAL is Turpin, but it depends on how much of a gambler you are. I am personally avoiding it, but wanted to note that sometimes you need to find some very cheap players to include in a stack. For PHI, Dotson can be a dart throw, as he had a nice 51-yard reception.
Best Ball Notes:
- Move up J. Williams
- Move down AJ Brown and Pickens
Chiefs vs Chargers
For KC, the backfield split between Pacheco and Hunt was much closer than I expected. I’m taking a wait-and-see approach, which is not good for Pacheco owners. Worthy got hurt early on, which led to Hollywood getting 16 targets and JuJu Smith-Schuster getting five. If Worthy is out, both get a big bump, and Thornton also comes into play.
For LAC, Johnston had two touchdowns, but all main receivers were involved, and we all know touchdowns aren’t a reliable indicator of future performance. There’s no question that Herbert isn’t afraid to throw him the ball, though.
Redraft Notes:
- KC: I am concerned about Pacheco’s usage, but he looked like himself, so I will wait and see. If you have other options, I’d probably go that route for now. Hunt is still off my radar. Any WR on the field for KC could be worth stashing since the WR room is a mess and they have to throw to someone. Starting Brown, with or without Worthy, is probably a safe move for now.
- LAC: No concerns here, unless you’re a believer in N. Harris. Hampton is going to be a beast! Do not start Harris unless something happens to Hampton. Tre Harris is the #4 WR and shouldn’t be started. Herbert looked great, and this could be a nice year for him; I’m buying.
DFS Notes:
You can throw a dart at any Chiefs player who is in uniform. I may sneak in some Pacheco next week if everyone is off him. He may fall into the end zone, and I still have faith in his abilities depending on his price. There’s no question that Hunt’s presence should give you pause. I am not playing any N. Harris or T. Harris for LAC.
Best Ball Notes:
- Move up H. Brown
- Move up Q. Johnston, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Thornton, and Herbert (he looks great)
- Slight move down for Pacheco
- Move down N. Harris
Other Notes:
- Herbert is more athletic than people give him credit for; he has some decent running ability for his size.
- Chiefs have a good run D
49ers vs Seahawks
I don’t even want to talk about this game. The 49ers lost Kittle (hammy) for a minimum of four weeks, and after the game, Purdy was out for two to five weeks with turf toe. I love Purdy and am a big fan, but losing Kittle may be worse for the 49ers. His involvement in the pass and run game is underrated. He is the best all-around TE in the league when you add in his blocking and leadership. Mac Jones should be just good enough to keep the 49ers’ weapons fantasy-relevant, but it’s not a fun situation.
The Seahawks’ game went about exactly as I expected, except for Walker III. I wasn’t high on Darnold, but he was effective enough to keep Smith-Njigba going. Kupp may have a few decent games, but he’s not the same player he once was, so don’t expect his past numbers, especially in this offense. The split duties between Charbonnet and Walker were expected. I like Charbonnet and knew they’d use him a lot. What was surprising was Walker’s lack of performance with his share of the duties. He didn’t look good, and I was surprised. It’s hard to tell, as perhaps the 49ers’ defense had better reads on his plays? Talent-wise, I like Walker a lot, so this was disappointing. I’m not giving up on him, but I have a slight concern after already conceding that he would be splitting the backfield duties.
Redraft Notes:
- SEA: I am buying Charbonnet and holding on to Walker. Buying Smith-Njigba and selling Kupp. No TE on this team should be owned in standard leagues.
- SF: Pearsall is the WR1 on this team, if there was any question. I am not selling Jennings, but it may be a DFS-only season for him. Tonges looked decent at TE in Kittle’s absence, but I can’t pretend to know anything about him.
DFS Notes:
I’d definitely throw some darts at Tonges. I am also not shying away from the 49ers’ WRs. I don’t think I’ll be doing any SF stacks anytime soon, but one player in a lineup shouldn’t hurt. For SEA, the only guy I am playing in DFS for now is Smith-Njigba, and even then, I don’t know how high his ceiling is. Perhaps in a league like DK where it’s 1 PPR.
Best Ball Notes:
- Move up Charbonnet
- Move down Walker and Kupp
Bucs vs Falcons
Nothing crazy to note here, except that Egbuka is everything I hoped he would be. And to my chagrin, Pitts actually looked good from a fantasy perspective.
Redraft Notes:
- TB: Buy Egbuka. I don’t think Godwin will be back to full game speed for a while, but at some point, there will be too many mouths to feed, so don’t overpay for Egbuka. Irving didn’t get going in this game, but I am not concerned; he looked great.
- ATL: Bijan is awesome, especially in 1 PPR leagues. London, when healthy, is going to be a nice alpha WR for ATL; buy if the price is right. I refuse to say “buy” on Pitts, but I wouldn’t fault you for doing it, maybe. Mooney didn’t play in the game, so there is no movement there. Allgeier is the best handcuff in fantasy football.
DFS Notes:
Nothing to say that you didn’t already know about these two teams. Egbuka is an awesome play in the current situation. ATL and TB stacks should be played as you normally would. If London or Mooney miss time, McCloud is a good cheap pick for ATL. Even Casey Washington got in on the action with six targets!
Best Ball Notes:
Move up Egbuka and also the TE from ATL, whose name I refuse to write, and move up in the same sentence from PTSD.
Other Notes:
- Falcons D is decent
- Irving looked explosive, and Tucker looked good, too. They both made White look slow BUT he looks big and can push a pile.
Bengals vs Browns
This was a defensive game, making it a dud for fantasy. I didn’t have high hopes for much on the Cleveland side, but the rookies Sampson and Fannin Jr. impressed, especially in PPR leagues. Watching the game, I was more impressed with Tillman than Jeudy. While I wouldn’t leapfrog him in the rankings, Tillman looked good, and Jeudy… not as good, but I am sure he’ll have his one or two blow-up games this year.
As for the Bengals, they struggled to find their rhythm, but I am not concerned. Chase Brown is one of the few bell cow RBs in the league, so owners should be happy with this game. It is worth noting that Fant looked better and was more involved in the passing game than Gesicki. They may cancel each other out in redraft leagues, though.
Redraft Notes:
- CIN: Not much to note, other than the TE situation mentioned above.
- CLE: For now, Sampson is the RB to own, especially in PPR. At TE, Fannin and Njoku can both be played based on how this offense is run. Fannin is the real deal, and Njoku is still earning targets. It’s not ideal, but it’s possible they both can work. Tillman is startable in 12-team leagues or bigger, depending on your roster. This team isn’t going to be lighting up the scoreboard, so tread lightly.
DFS Notes:
Fannin will be priced too low, so take advantage. If I had to choose a TE to play in DFS for Cincy, it would be Fant, but I wouldn’t be happy about it. Ford should be completely off your radar. I actually think he’s talented and they don’t give him enough credit, but then again, there’s a reason I am writing this article and not coaching.
Best Ball Notes:
- Move up: Fant, Sampson, and Tillman
- Move down: Gesicki, Ford
Other Notes:
- Browns have a very good pass rush
- The Browns should have won, for what it’s worth.
Dolphins vs Colts
I almost want to skip doing this one because it is so complicated and confusing to explain. My main takeaway is that Mike McDaniel may be looking for a job soon. It was an awful game for the Dolphins on both sides of the ball. A good rule of thumb is not to overreact to Week 1, so I am trying not to, but I am definitely hesitant to play any Dolphins outside of Achane until I see improvement.
As for the Colts, I’ve watched way too much Daniel Jones to jump back on the bandwagon. And yes, I have been on his bandwagon many moons ago. A change of scenery may do him good, but how good is yet to be determined. It’s pretty clear to most fans that the Giants organization is a mess, and maybe we never got to see Jones perform with a better line, coaching staff, and weapons. Pittman had a great game and may be a steal given his pedigree.
Redraft Notes:
- MIA: Of all the teams, this is the one I’m most concerned with. We learned last year what happens when Tua is either out or not operating at a high level. As mentioned earlier, the only player I am playing in redraft is Achane, mainly because I also have zero shares of Hill. If you own Hill, you should play him. Waddle is a decent play in 1 PPR.
- IND: You can play Jones, but I won’t be. Pittman looks to be a solid option at WR, but Downs had a dud. I like Downs, but it remains to be seen how he gels with Jones. I’d avoid Jones if you can, at least for another week. No other IND WR should be in your lineup. T. Warren looked the part of the best TE in the draft. Fire him up if you own him. I am not a Loveland believer given his current situation.
DFS Notes:
If you do mass entries, you always have to put a MIA stack out there; you never know. But if I had to choose a player to have the most exposure to from this team, it would be Achane and that’s about it. As for IND, I like Pittman and Warren moving forward. Taylor will have his boom/bust games. I am sure Pierce or Downs will have a tournament-winning performance at least once this year, but how do you know when? I am not putting my money on the Colts’ players, but that’s just me. By the time I would, it would be too late because everyone else is on them too. Being the contrarian player that I am, maybe I should do some IND stacks?
Best Ball Notes:
- Move up Pittman. I’d say Warren, but he was already pretty high.
- Move down Hill, Waddle, Tua, and Downs.
Other Notes:
- Jones needs to be careful scrambling; he almost got his head knocked off.
- Indy’s defense looked good
- Giddens is the handcuff for JT. He almost scored.
Raiders vs Patriots
This was an interesting game. The Raiders’ performance was impressive, which didn’t shock me, but their win was an unexpected outcome. The Patriots underperformed based on my expectations. Perhaps the Raiders’ defense is better than I thought, but the Pats looked off, likely because their ground attack struggled.
Redraft Notes:
- LV: Jeanty delivered a strong performance and got the playing time you’d hope for. While he may not pay off his hefty fantasy price tag, he’s going to be just fine this year. Bowers and Meyers are a great 1-2 punch for Geno Smith, who threw for 362 yards in Foxboro. As for a third receiver, you shouldn’t be playing anyone else from LV, but Tucker and Thornton did get involved and were effective, though they won’t get the volume each week.
- NE: Maye wasn’t expensive in drafts, but I had higher hopes for him. The Raiders’ defense seemed to get to him, but it’s unclear if that means their defense is better than I think or if Maye might not be as good as I think. He’s young and has time to improve, so I am not worried, but in a redraft league, he’s probably not the most reliable option. Henderson and Stevenson split time at RB, which was the plan, but it shouldn’t be. Henderson is the better back and should see his role increase. His six catches in this game were very encouraging, and I’m buying on him if anyone is selling. Boutte led the way for pass catchers with six catches and 103 yards. We’ve seen him shine before, but I am not buying that he’s moved up to a new tier of WR. He may be the #2 WR on the team for a while, until K. Williams proves a threat. Diggs was solid with his new squad. He’s not the same guy he once was, but he should have a solid season. While Douglas caught a TD, he had -2 total yards on seven targets and didn’t do much else. I need to see another game from this offense before I evaluate him, because I like him in 1 PPR leagues, but I could be jumping ship real soon.
DFS Notes:
- Jeanty is going to have a game at some point, and you may want to start shooting for it sooner rather than later because it’s coming. For the price, Geno is a decent sleeper play. You can throw in Tucker or Thornton as a cheap stack option to Bowers or Meyers. For NE, it’s really hard choosing which WR to pair Maye with in DFS, but it could be Maye and Henderson stacks that succeed a few times this year.
Best Ball Notes:
- Move up Meyers.
- Move down Douglas a tad; he was already pretty far down
Other Notes:
- Raiders D is decent
- Pats pass D is pretty questionable, look to target them
Cardinals vs Saints
This is going to sound crazy, but Rattler impressed me. Not because I think he’s going to be a good QB, but because I think he’s going to be good enough for you to play some of his teammates, which I didn’t think was going to be possible. I was thinking this was going to look like the Dolphins post-Tua injury last year. He didn’t look great, but he did well enough to provide some fantasy opportunities. They aren’t afraid to let him throw it around. J. Johnson had 8 catches, Olave had 7, and Shaheed had 6.
As for Arizona, they looked the same as they did last year, with some improvements. Benson is going to get more looks this season, which we knew and he deserves. Harrison looked better in his second year. The team lives and dies by Murray’s legs. I don’t know how many yards that guy scrambles, but it has to be the most in the NFL. This is nothing new, though, so it is what it is. He just doesn’t look to be an elite passer, but his legs give him opportunities most other QBs don’t have.
Redraft Notes:
- ARI: Nothing surprising or new here to report. Conner looks good but will split more time this year. I’d avoid any WR3 on this team.
- NO: It’s safe to play Kamara, Olave, Shaheed, and Johnson, just as you drafted them. I probably wouldn’t be starting Johnson at TE just yet, but stashing him on your bench is probably a good idea if you’re hurting for TE depth. Let’s note that Kendre Miller looked improved, which isn’t saying much because we didn’t see a ton of him last year, but if Kamara goes down, he could provide good value. He’ll definitely be splitting time with Neal, but I lean towards Miller being a better option.
DFS Notes:
No sneaky plays to report here, and no one I’m avoiding within the core of either team. I am not considering playing any WR3 from either team.
Best Ball Notes:
- Move up Shaheed, Johnson, and Benson.
- Move down M. Wilson.
Steelers vs Jets
This was probably the most fun game to watch, considering I thought it was going to be awful. The Steelers squeaked it out, 34-32. Rodgers may have hit his ceiling this year with 244 yards and 4 TDs, but if you own any Steelers players, you were stoked to see it.
I’ll admit I have never been a J. Fields believer as a QB in the NFL. Sure, I’ve played him in DFS and Best Ball, but I would never draft him in redraft leagues. I am pleasantly surprised by his performance, and as long as he stays healthy, he should pay off dividends for those who invested in him. I wouldn’t sell the farm to get him, but I’m buying if anyone is selling.
Redraft Notes:
- PIT: I’m not starting Rodgers anywhere, any time soon, but it was nice to see 4 TDs. The backfield is a mess in Pitt, and one you should probably just avoid. No one looked good, but is it surprising? Metcalf only had 4 catches, but they were all nice, and he looks like he can provide some decent value this year. Calvin Austin is the #2 WR in Pitt and that’s where he was on the depth chart, but that’s not saying a ton. He did score a TD, and I bet he’ll have a few more this season, but I can also see several performances of 5 fantasy points or less. You can tell the Steelers want to get Jonnu Smith the ball, but Freiermuth is still in the mix as well. I wouldn’t play Freiermuth anywhere, but Smith on the other hand, I am buying if I am desperate.
- NYJ: Fields, Hall, and Wilson all performed at or better than their fantasy price tag. Other than that, no one is worth starting or even rostering right now unless you have room to stash Mason Taylor for the future at TE, but I don’t really advise it as he should be on waivers for a while. The one key piece where I differ from most of the fantasy community is that I. Davis should be the #2 RB in New York, not B. Allen. Allen hasn’t shown us anything other than that he is slow as molasses. Davis, on the other hand, looks like a decent NFL running back. I wouldn’t roster either of them, but if you need a Jets handcuff, I am gambling on David, even though Allen will probably get first crack at it. Avoid any Jets receiver not named Wilson.
DFS Notes:
I am not playing anyone from the Steelers except maybe Metcalf and Austin from time to time, but only small shares. For the Jets, I think they are going to be pretty chalky for a bit, but if I am banking on anyone, it’s going to be Hall. He legit looked like a top 3 back to me over the last few years, and if Fields can prevent the defenses from keying in on Hall, he could pay off huge. I love some Fields, Hall, Wilson stacks in the future!
Best Ball Notes:
- Move up: Fields, Hall, G. Wilson, C. Austin, and J. Smith.
- Move down: Warren and K. Johnson
Giants vs Commanders
Russell Wilson is cooked. Until they start Dart, this team is going to be a mess, and even then, there are no guarantees.
Redraft Notes:
- NYG: The Giants are awful. I can probably leave that there and move on. The Commanders looked decent and Deebo is fitting right in. I ride with Bill, and he rides with me. Because the QB play is so bad, I don’t know if you can play T. Tracy, who is currently the RB1 for the Giants. Skattebo looks and plays more like a fullback in my opinion, but maybe he’ll become fantasy relevant this season, but I am not holding my breath. That said, it’s fun to watch him play football. Wan’Dale Robinson is a fun, cheap player to have in 1 PPR leagues. Nabers is elite but his QB is the opposite. Plan accordingly. Theo Johnson didn’t look great at TE, and that can change, but he shouldn’t be rostered.
- WAS: As I am writing this article, Ekeler went down with a season-ending injury so Croskey-Merritt will inherit the clear RB1 duties for WAS with McNichols probably getting the pass-down role. I am buying Deebo Samuel. McLaurin was quiet but I’m not concerned.
DFS Notes:
See my notes on the Giants, but I am not playing anyone on this team in DFS. Not even Nabers because of his price tag. Once it lowers, then I may play a little Nabers. I like Commander’s stacks when the matchup is right. I am not buying that Jayden Daniels will have a bad sophomore year.
Best Ball Notes:
- Move up JCM (Bill) and Deebo.
- Move down anyone in a Giants uniform. That doesn’t mean don’t own any, but I wouldn’t pay market price. Once Dash takes over, it could be similar to the Broncos and Nix surge last year, but that’s doubtful, one can hope though.
Panthers at Jaguars
I am going to skip right to the notes here. The Panthers are bad… the Jaguars are okay.
Redraft Notes:
- CAR: Unfortunately, B. Young looked like he did most of his rookie year. Not a good sign at all. He shouldn’t be rostered. Chuba does what Chuba does… looks decent on a crappy team. He’s probably worth playing if you need him. Dowdle isn’t overtaking him any time soon. The one and only bright spot for the Panthers was Tet McMillian. He looked great, but unfortunately, he’s on the Panthers. He’s worth starting, though. No one else should be on your starting roster from the Panthers other than Chuba or McMillian, end of story.
- JAC: I should note my bias here… I am not a Lawrence believer and don’t think he should be a starting NFL quarterback. That said, they’ve given him great weapons and a new coach, so anything is possible. Etienne Jr. looked great. So great they traded away Bigsby. I think that says more about Tuten than it does Etienne, but let’s roll with Etienne while we can. I don’t think anyone really questions his talent; they just question the system, which is now new. He could be a steal here. The good and bad news for the Jags is that Strange led the team in receiving yards with 59, the bad…. repeat that statement. BTJ had one catch on seven targets. Yikes! Better days are ahead, but go back to my Lawrence statement. For the price, Thomas may be a frustrating play this year, but I am not selling just yet; there is still time. Hunter had six catches, which was nice to see.
DFS Notes:
The Panthers may put together one or two DFS-worthy performances this year as a stack, but I am not betting on it, no matter how contrarian I am. You typically want to be ahead of the curve when predicting these performances and be the only person with the Panthers stack when they go off. In this case, I am going to bet against them and wait and see. If I see two good games, then I’ll start to play some, but there are too many good teams and players out there for me to be wasting time on the Panthers. That said, Tet and Hubbard could be worth some shares in DFS. Maybe even Sanders if he’s basically free.
For the Jags, my bias won’t let me say much here. I can’t not play some Jags stacks; their weapons are too good. If the whole field looks to be off of them, I may actually be buying their DFS stacks as much as I hate it. I’ll feel better when I win the Milly off a Lawrence, Etienne, Thomas, Strange stack.
Best Ball Notes:
Move up Etienne and Strange. The Panthers were already dirt cheap; I can’t move them much lower. While Tet looked great, what numbers can he actually provide with Young and this squad? I hope I am wrong for all of my cheap Panther best ball stacks.
Other Notes:
- Jags are going to struggle against good defense, plan accordingly
- Car bad run D if you couldn’t tell
Titans vs Broncos
Pretty ugly game for both teams, but mainly because both have a decent defense. So if you like defense, you had a decent time watching the game. There is going to be a learning curve for Cam Ward, no question. I’ve read a lot of people saying he looked decent in his performance, mainly because of his poise and maybe because he was making good progressions for a rookie. I am not 100% sure. I didn’t see it, but I watched it on condensed play. I heard if you watch it on the all-22, he looked better. Not sure I am buying it, though.
Redraft Notes:
- TEN: Ward shouldn’t be on your team. Pollard should be on your team and starting. I am not a Ridley fan so I am biased here, but if I own him, I am selling. The rest of the team is going to rise and fall with Ward, so you probably shouldn’t be playing anyone until you see them prove they are worthy. I like Ayomanor a lot, but in redraft, I don’t own many shares except for deep or dynasty leagues.
- DEN: We’ll add Nix to my “most disappointing” list. Oof, he did not look good and I am bummed. Some sharp people said he didn’t look great last year, and I didn’t want to believe them. I enjoyed watching him and enjoyed the points he got me, but what was I missing? I watched this game and saw what I may have been missing. The backfield is a split of Dobbins and R.J. Harvey, both of which are decent but different. Harvey is going to be good, but how much work will he get? Dobbins looked like a veteran back and is solid if you’re a Broncos fan, but for fantasy, I don’t know how I feel because Harvey should be getting the rock more. Both are worthy of starting in the flex. Harvey was talked about as a top 3 or 4 rookie RB, but his issue is Dobbins, not his skills. Be careful for now. I am buying Sutton. I am really torn and could spend a lot of time on this, but I don’t know how I feel about Troy Franklin and Mims Jr. I like them both, but who will provide better value this year? It should be Mims, but both received 4 targets and Franklin did more. Mims will have a few boom games but when? It’s hard to ride in redraft when Nix threw the ball to 11 different guys, literally. I am not selling Mims, though, as much as I may be buying Franklin on deep teams. I am holding Nix. Despite not looking great, I think he’ll provide the fantasy value you paid for him. Not the best, but not the worst. After one game, though, I am not panicking.
DFS Notes:
Pollard is the only Titan I am playing until I see otherwise.
For Denver, I want shares of many different combos here, which is expensive, unfortunately. But I don’t know how else to play it. You could also ride with the same combo each week and wait until it hits. Something like Nix, Harvey, Sutton, and if you want a 4th, Mims or Franklin. Engram also has to be in the conversation. See what I mean? Dobbins could definitely fall into the end zone and get 100 yards, so he’s not out of the conversation because I can’t imagine his pricing will be too expensive.
Best Ball Notes:
Moving up Troy Franklin slightly. Otherwise, there is no movement up for either team. Moving down = no one. Players for these teams are all reasonably priced.
Other Notes:
- Den O-line looked pretty bad
- Nix has some improving to do, too many off balance throws
- Titans D is not bad
Lions vs Packers
The highlight of this game was the Packers defense. They shut down the potent Lions. The only asterisk on that statement is whether some of the Lions’ issues came from Ben Johnson’s departure.
Otherwise, Jacobs looked in mid-season form, toting 19 carries for 66 yards and a TD vs a decent defense. No GB WR stood out, which is par for the course. I actually think Kraft may be Love’s favorite target this year. Golden may eventually get there, but he’ll have a learning curve.
Redraft Notes:
DET: I am not panicking on any players. That said, I already marked them all down (except Gibbs) because of the departure of Ben Johnson. I think the Lions will be fine this year, but may have a few more bumps in the road compared to last year.
The good problem to have for the Lions is having LaPorta, St. Brown, Williams, Gibbs, and now TeSlaa in the passing game. I say this because as a redraft owner, it’s going to be a rollercoaster. I love these guys in best ball, not so much in redraft (except for Gibbs).
GB: Nothing really new to report here. They are exactly who we think they are. Scrappy, with a lot of receiving options, and a great RB.
DFS Notes:
Honestly, these two teams are very similar to who they were last year. I think Kraft is my favorite Packers option outside of Jacobs, and the Lions can all go off at any time, hard to predict but fun to ride the wave when they hit.
Best Ball Notes:
Move up Kraft. Nothing else to note.
Texans vs Rams
14-9 Rams. That sums it up. K. Williams and Nacua are good, and the Rams D is good. Adams was involved but isn’t the same player he used to be but still great for the #2 WR on a team.
Redraft Notes:
- HOU: Chubb looked good at RB, even with poor blocking. He was once a top 3 back, and he won’t ever get back there, but could he be a top 15 back? It’s possible. Top 10? I’ve seen crazier things. It doesn’t look like he’ll have any competition for a while, so he’ll get the chance. Stroud was off, which impacted all receiving options. I am not selling if I owned any shares but I am going to watch his next few games closely. His QBR in 2023 was 58.3 compared to 46.4 last year. First game this year was 45.1. He’s not the kind of QB you draft and never trade or drop. You’ll need to cut bait by week 4 or 5 if he doesn’t improve. Hopefully, this is the floor game for Collins with 3 catches for 25 yards; otherwise, he’ll be the biggest fantasy bust this year. He’s too good for this to happen so I am not panicking. Maybe even buying if someone is crazy enough to get rid of him. J. Higgins looked good on his 3 targets and 2 catches. I think he’ll be a nice weapon for this team. Definitely worth a bench stash.
- LAR: The Rams are pretty straightforward. The only question is how involved Adams will be with Nacua, as one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL. Gotta start Adams, though, right? Right?!
DFS Notes:
Nothing major to report here, both teams have fantasy value. While Collins had an off game, you can’t count him out. Same with Stroud. Depending on the match-up, Chubb could be a sneaky play.
Best Ball Notes:
The only movement for either team is a slight move down for Stroud, Higgins, and Collins. Maybe move them each or two spots down at their position, but not far.
Ravens vs Bills
I don’t need to go too deep into these, we’ve all seen the game or highlights. It was an epic game to watch, unless you’re a Ravens fan. Even then, at least your team scored 40.
One of the things I was surprised about in this game was the limited action of Ray Davis. I thought he may have earned more carries this year but it was the opposite. He was used less than the end of last year. Great for Cook owners. Davis’ owners weren’t using him as a standalone value anyway; they needed a Cook injury either way.
Redraft Notes:
- BAL: You are starting Lamar, Henry, and Flowers. Andrews you can play at your own risk. Look at his game log last year and you’ll see why.
- BUF: Coleman came to play! I will admit, I was not a Coleman stan this best ball season until the very end, and I regret that. He may have made the step up several people were predicting. Otherwise, you already know to start Cook and Allen. Shakir in a 1 PPR in the flex or 3rd WR spot should be fine. Kincaid scored but the TE share was split again and I don’t think he’ll ever be a top TE given this team and his usage. I am selling if you can. Palmer is the field spreader and will get a few looks every game at a long one. Could pay off some games, not a risk I am taking in redraft but definitely will in best ball and DFS.
DFS Notes:
We all know both teams can be electric so I don’t have much to tell you that you don’t already know. Maybe make some Bateman lineups while people are sleeping on him? Definitely have some Palmer lineups too.
Best Ball Notes:
- No changes
Vikings vs Bears
This was a tale of two halves. At halftime, Vikings fans were pissing their pants. McCarthy had a rough first half. He ended up coming through clutch and it was awesome to see. The Bears disappointed after high expectations with the new coaching staff and the addition of a few new offensive weapons. Something people need to realize is that this is not the Detroit Lions; Ben Johson will not be able to run the offense the same way. That said, he can still be successful, but it’s hard to predict who will be the winners and losers from the team, because they can’t all win at their price. Moore, Odunze, Loveland, and Burden can’t all smash this year. Shoot, Zaccheaus is no bum; he had four catches and 42 yards. Remember, real NFL teams don’t care about your fantasy team. This could be a hot hand thing all year.
Redraft Notes:
- CHI: I am not sold on Williams at all. Read what I wrote about Stroud before and you can apply the same concept to Williams, except Williams didn’t have as good of a rookie year. He just doesn’t look comfortable with the ball in his hand. I didn’t buy any shares, so I can’t sell any in redraft. Odunze and Moore looked good! Start them both. Burden should not be anywhere near your starting lineup. Unpopular opinion but I think Loveland will be a fantasy bust this year. Chalk this up to too many mouths to feed and the system he’s in, along with Kmet, who I think is a decent TE. That said, Bowers had a good TE behind him, too, and he did not care one bit. So there’s still time. If you bought Loveland, I’d ride it out. Swift looked fine.
- MIN: Jordan Mason looked better than A. Jones. Do with that what you will. I’d be nervous if I was a Jones owner. The only good news is that Mason doesn’t have the best injury history. Age may be catching up with Jones. If Mason stays healthy this year, Jones owners are in trouble. Jefferson may not be a top 3 fantasy receiver this year, but not for lack of ability. I think there will be some conservative play calling with the whole Mason/Jones backfield. Once Addison comes back, though, that should open some things up for Jefferson. I am not selling Jefferson, but I am also not buying at the price. Hockenson is a decent TE play. Thielen was non-existent in this game, keep him off your rosters
DFS Notes:
- McCarthy and Jefferson stacks will always be in play. If you want a third option, I would maybe do one with Mason, one with Jones. I like the QB-RB-WR stacks.
- William + Odunze + Moore stack has to hit this year, right? I will probably throw that out there in at least one tournament every week.
Best Ball Notes:
- Chase and Diggs need to be ahead of Jefferson in your rankings, if they weren’t already.
- Move up Mason and move A Jones down, which I think people started to do anyway over the last couple of weeks.
- Move Burden and Loveland down
