DFS Lineup Analysis: What Worked in NFL Weeks 1-4 (2024)
I’ve analyzed the top lineups from DraftKings’ Millymaker to uncover strategies you can apply in your DFS contests.
After reviewing the top 10 lineups from each of the first four weeks (40 total lineups), here’s what I discovered (in thread format).
Keep in mind this is a small sample size.
Types of stacks used
40% (16) used QB + 1 WR
20% (8) used QB + 1 WR + 1 TE
18% (7) didn’t stack their QB
5% (2) used QB + 1 TE
5% (2) used QB +2 WR
5% (2) used QB +1 WR + 1 RB
3% (1) used QB + 1 TE + D
3% (1) used QB + 2 WR + D
Stacks that haven’t been used in top lineups (yet)
QB + 1 RB
QB + 2 WR
QB + 1 RB + TE
Here are some different ways the stacks were broken down. These stats are presented independently and are not directly correlated, but each provides valuable insights on its own.
38% (15) of lineups had 1 bringback player (opposing team) to their main stack.
30% (12) of lineups paired their D with at least 1 offensive player from that same team
28% (11) of lineups double stacked their QB (had two teammates).
25% (10) of lineups used two different stacks in the same lineup from different game.
15% (6) of lineups didn’t stack their QB but still had a different stack in the lineup (note, only one team .had no stacks in their lineup at all, which equals 3% of the lineups.
8% (3) of lineups played an opposing team’s player against their rostered defense.
5% (2) of lineups triple stacked their QB (had three teammates).
3% (1) had three different stacks in their lineup.
Here’s how the flex was used in these 40 lineups:
70% (26) used a RB
28% (11) used a WR
8% (3) used a TE
What I take from these numbers:
1. These are not stats of what the field is doing, just the top teams to date.
2. This will change. Do you want to ride the trends or buck the trend and try and do something that hasn’t hit yet? Per #1, just because something hasn’t hit in the top lineups DOES NOT mean it hasn’t been tried by many. Tread carefully.
3. Running Backs have great value in the flex.
4. Stacking your QB with 1 WR is a safe play.
5. TEs can be a nice third piece to a stack.
6. Playing an offensive player from the same team as your defense seems to be a thing.
7. Double-stacking a game hasn’t worked out well. At least two players from both teams in the same game. It could probably work but you’d have to thread the needle.
8. You don’t have to stack your QB but you should have a stack elsewhere in your lineup.
9. Oddly enough 8% of the teams had a defense play against an opposing team’s player. This is typically frowned upon but I guess if you can get some savings on the defense to pay up for a player, it can work.
10. A (QB + RB stack) and a (QB + 2 WR double stack) haven’t hit yet but both should hit at some point based on analysis from previous years. Maybe try a couple of these lineups to see if you can be the one to put it on the board.
I reviewed the top 5 lineups in greater detail from the first four weeks, and here are some additional insights I found.
1. SPEND YOUR MONEY. The average salary spent amongst these 20 lineups was $49,785 (99.6% of salary)
2. Ownership is hard to project but typically the chalk can be fairly obvious. The average ownership for these top lineups was 97.44%. The lowest being 43% and the highest being 145.6%.
3. Through the first four weeks, the Price to Points (PTP) average is 4.37x. The PTP value shows how many points you need from a player (or total lineup) based on their salary to win. To calculate it, you divide a player’s points by their adjusted salary (which is their salary divided by 1,000). For example, if a player costs $5,000, the adjusted salary is 5.0. If the target PTP value is 3.53, you multiply the adjusted salary by 3.53 to find the points you need. So, for a $5,000 player, you’d want 17.65 points (5 x 3.53) to hit your target value.
4. You don’t have the mass enter to win. While the average number of entries across these top 20 lineups was 28.3, 13 of the top 20 entered less than 5 entries!
Based on the current trends, here is how much on average is spent at each position:
QB – $5,865
RB – $6,473
WR – $5,992
TE – $4,275
FLX – $5,570
D – $3,155
What do I take from these numbers?
- Spend $$ at RB.
- Don’t take the top-priced QBs, try and find value. Obviously, a top QB can hit but I am following the trend here.
- Don’t overspend on TE. These numbers back up what everyone has been seeing…TEs have been underproducing. Sure, one can hit, but I’d rather go with the safer plays and use my money on RBs and WRs.
- The variety of different defenses isn’t shown in these numbers but I can tell you that for the most part, the defenses used varied from lineup to lineup. I’d see a lot of the same position players in the winning lineups but defenses were a toss-up. I don’t have a suggestion here other than maybe using different defenses across your lineups and hope a few hits. That may be bad advice though so take it with a grain of salt.
