Hot and Cold Takes for the 2023 Football Season

by Primetime Playaz · Published September 4, 2023 · Updated September 4, 2023

Every year I look forward to sharing some hot takes for the football season, as well as reading others. This time I put together a list that will also include cold takes. I went out and found some fairly popular hot takes that I disagreed with, so I called them cold takes. I’m really cooking with fire over here.

Criteria for making the “cold take” list

A good hot take shouldn’t be hard to disagree with because it’s so “hot” or outlandish that people should say wow, that’s nuts. There are some though that are somewhere in between being too far and too easy. So, I found ones that a good number of hot takes that people support that I disagree with, and these I call “cold takes.” They can’t be too wild like Michael Pittman Jr. will lead the league in receptions and receiving yards. They can’t be too soft like DeVonta Smith finishes as a top 10 WR. For that reason, I threw the outliers out from both ends of the spectrum. I also ignored the ones I agreed with that I didn’t feel were a hot enough take, such as K. Herbert leading the Bears in rushing. That’s not really a hot take, even though someone said it was, but I also agree with it, so I will let them take the credit.

Criteria for making the “hot take” list

These hot takes should be bold enough to where most people won’t agree, and if they were to hit, you’d win some good money betting it. If I hit one or two of them, I’d be impressed. A successful hot take would be something like saying Geno Smith will finish as a top 10 fantasy QB in 2022. NO ONE was saying that. Most didn’t even think he’d be the starter, let alone be good.

As a disclaimer, I am not going to try and convince you with a bunch of statistics because then I’d be a hypocrite. I am on record of saying hot takes shouldn’t be persuaded with stats, just let ’em rip. When it comes to hot takes, these come from the gut. I like statistics. They make the fantasy world go around. I respect people who create awesome stats, and I appreciate their work. I geek out on it.

On the flip side, what I have seen time and time again is people cherry-picking what stats they use for their narrative. I get it though; stats are eye-catching and help make your point. Many times, the statistic being shared is important BUT it would be smarter to use when combined with other stats from the player, not as the only stat to use for the player. I am publishing an article soon about how to see through the statistical fog, so stay tuned. It won’t be a stat-bashing article, more of how to temper expectations. I can go out there and research player X and find positive and negative stats for every player. You have to decipher what is relevant and what isn’t.

When I do my hot and cold takes, I am shooting from the gut. My gut has some knowledge though. It has watched a lot of games, read many articles, looked up too many stats, and listened to so so many podcasts.

WARNING: This is not drafting advice. Don’t adjust your rankings drastically based on this information. Move a guy up or down a few spots at most.

2023 HFS Cold Takes (aka ones I DON’T agree with)

Breece Hall finishes as a top-10 fantasy RB. I think he’d be lucky to finish in the top 20 but could provide great playoff value.

Jaxson Smith-Njigba will lead the Seahawks’ WRs in fantasy points. I am a fan of his and think he’s the best WR in the 2023 draft. Metcalf is still in his prime. JSN can beat his average draft position, but Metcalf is still going to eat, not to mention Lockett.

Lamar Jackson finishes as the overall fantasy QB1. I understand predicting #1 isn’t easy with Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts in the mix, so this is a bold take but so many people are making it. The Ravens will rely on their defense more than people think and Lamar isn’t going to need to throw as much as a #1 would have to in order to reach the #1 ranking. Sure, he has the legs to make up for it, but if he wants to stay on the field all season, he isn’t going to be running for 1,000 yards. I think he has the chance for a great season and could finish as high as QB3. Outside of the big three QBs already mentioned, I only see the #1 spot potentially going to Burrow or Herbert, and even then, they are long shots. I don’t think either will make it into the top 3. #1 is really between the big three, just as fantasy drafts have been showing.

Calvin Ridley finishes as a top 5 fantasy WR. He’s been through a lot, and I am rooting for him this season, but fantasy isn’t played on goodwill. Two years off is a long time and Kirk, Jones, and Engram did really well last season. Ridley won’t get the production to pull this off. He could still have a great season but I don’t see him finishing in the top 15. I don’t like predicting injuries, but I also don’t like to ignore some red flags. Being out for so long and getting up there in football age is a risky bet.

Jared Goff finishes as a top X fantasy QB. You can put whatever number you want in place of X but it isn’t happening. He had 6 TDs in away games last year. He has some weapons and will be a serviceable QB but don’t expect him to leap into the top 10 or 15. They are running when they get into the redzone.

Travis Etienne finishes as a top 5 fantasy RB. I am an Etienne fan and like the way he runs, but he’s being drafted at his ceiling at RB10. He won’t get enough production to make it in the top 10, let alone the top 5. He’s a great best ball player though because he’ll have a few spike weeks.

Dalton Kincaid finishes as a top 5 fantasy TE. This guy has some hands, no question. In an offense that likes to spread the ball around and who already has a TE and capable slot receivers, he isn’t going to be heavily targeted game in and game out. He may have some big games, but consistency is important when making the top 5. I say he finishes outside the top 15 TEs.

Rhamondre Stevenson finishes as a top 5 (let’s even say 10) fantasy RB. Again, it pains me to have him on this list, as it did Etienne and JSN, because I like them, but I must do it. A tough schedule, fumbling problems, and Zeke as the #2 all smells more like top 15 ceiling. The Patriots could be in a world of hurt this year and even if they do surprise us and have a winning season, they aren’t going to be super high scoring. Stevenson will get his points in ppr leagues, but I don’t see over 10 TDs on the horizon for him.

D’Andre Swift finishes as a top 10 fantasy RB. Sure, he’s on a better team but with Hurts vulturing TDs, and Penny and Gainwell on the roster, this will be a tough feat. Not to mention I have bought into the hype one too many times with Swift. Fool me once..yada yada. I’m fine with being wrong on this one because he’s burned me too many times. I’d be shocked if he made the top 20. Sorry Matthew Berry.