Week 1 of the 2023 football season is in the books and all I can say is WOW. Lots of surprises and unfortunately, injuries. Thanks to the NFL+ package, I was able to replay every game in condensed form. I’ve watched all the games and crunched the numbers. I want to make sure I am confident in the advice I give and the only way to do that is to see things with my own eyes.

If you’re newer to fantasy football, you should read our article “Should you add or drop a player after week 1“. It gives you some things to think about before making moves after week 1, or in general.

Note, (E-20%) means the player is owned in 20% of ESPN leagues.

Moving Day

These are players I am out on and immediately trying to move one way or another. This would mean dropping in shallow leagues or dropping/trading in deeper leagues.

1. Any KC Wide Receiver not named Rashee Rice. It’s obvious KC is going to spread the ball around. Not one player had over 14% target share in week 1, even without Kelce. Rashee Rice looked the best in my opinion, and was only in on 31% of the snaps. PFF agreed with a receiving score of 79.9, which was the highest out of his teammate WRs by at least 10 points. We know what the other receivers offer, which isn’t much. Rice is a rookie and got a nice 42% of targets per route run (TPRR). I don’t think he is going to be a league winner, but he’s the only one I want on my team. Some of the other WRs could have a big day but how are you going to know when? I think Rice might have the highest floor of the group. Even still, I am not going out of my way to get him but I am also not dropping him. It’s obvious Kelce is the lifeblood of the passing offense. I was pleasantly surprised with Justin Watson but given his history last year, I am not buying just yet.

2. Deon Jackson IND, RB (E-36.9%). I know the Colts are desperate for a RB but Jackson is not the answer. He had three fumbles and 14 yards rushing on 13 attempts. Look for them to bring in a back or move Moss to the starting lineup if healthy. Jackson may have had the worst performance of any week 1 fantasy player. Maybe he bounces back but that’s not where I am putting my money.

Trading Day

These are players I don’t want on my team but are too good to drop are on my Trading Day list.

1. Gabe Davis BUF, WR (E-79.7%). This is a player I didn’t want in a managed league before week 1, and week 1 showed why. He just doesn’t get enough volume week in and week out. He’ll have his one or two good games, but that’s it. Too frustrating to own in managed leagues. I’d try and get people to take him off your hands now.

Pulse Check

These are the players I am monitoring. I don’t have a lot of faith in them but I don’t want to overreact. They could turn out okay based on volume but if that volume starts to drop off, it’s time to move them. If an offer comes through that is decent, I am smashing the trade button.

1. Drake London ATL, WR (E-91.6%). Zero points. One Target. Yikes! We all knew this would be a running offense but you have to throw to your #1 receiver at some point, right? Maybe not. Keep an eye on the situation, you may want to trade if and when possible. He will bounce back but only had one game last season over 15 points, so not sure how high the bounce is. Too good to drop but a nightmare to start in standard leagues as of now. Didn’t make the trading day list because I don’t think there’ll be any takers.

2. Christian Kirk JAC, WR (E-91.3%). I am a Kirk fan but this is now Ridley’s team. One or two more dud games from Kirk and I am very very worried. Zay Jones was more involved than Kirk in week 1 and looked good to boot. Jones had 21% TPRR versus Kirk’s 9% TPRR.

3. Giants’ Wide Receivers. This isn’t shocking, we all knew their WR room was crowded, but if they aren’t going to score, it’s an even bigger problem. Aside from Barkley and Waller (injured), I am not sure I would be starting, or rostering, anyone on the Giants. Their schedule is the hardest in the league, but we’ll have a chance to see what is what in week 2 when they play ARI. They then play SF in week 3, so back to the bench they go. This is a team I’m monitoring and staying away from this season if I can. I think they are going to have too many bad games this year.

4. Allen Lazard NYJ, WR (E-49.2%). Most of you probably don’t own him, but if you do, I’d wait and see. He got a good share of the team’s targets with 22% but only had two catches. I wouldn’t want him, but if you own him you’re probably in a deep league so you may want to see what happens in week 2. He seems to be the clear #2 for the Jets which could pay off some games, but not many.

5. Antonio Gibson WAS, RB (E-81.6%). He had a rough first game. Only had 3 carries, 1 target, and 1 fumble. It looks like the new Offensive Coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, isn’t going to involve him as much as they lead on. Let’s wait one more game to see how this plays out but it’s not looking good for Gibson.

Don’t Worry Be Happy

These are players I am not worried about who had a dud game and some people are panicking. I am not seeking to trade these players away.

1. Tee Higgins CIN, WR (E-99.7%)

2. DJ Moore CHI, WR (E-95.6%)

3. Jamyr Gibbs DET, RB (E-98.7%)

Must Own

These are players that if available in your league, you should probably go and get them.

Tyler Allgeier ATL, RB (E-43.8%). 56% snap count, 15 attempts, and 75 yards. While this won’t be a consistent thing, he’s absolutely worth owning.

If they are available in your league, you should probably go and get them.

Jakobi Meyers LV, WR (E-78.9%). He’s probably not available but if he is, he had a dominating performance. I hope he recovers well from the tough hit he took.

Shallow League Adds

Players available in less than 40% of leagues

Zach Ertz ARI, TE (E-39%). Played in 77% of snaps…coming off injury, this is impressive. When healthy, he’s always had good value.

Roschon Johnson CHI, RB (E-21.1%). While he’s in a three-way timeshare, he looked very good. He was involved with the run and pass game, and looked good after contact.

Romeo Doubs GB, WR (E-19.2%). Keep an eye on Watson’s status because Watson is the #1 WR in this offense, but Doubs will play a nice complementary role this year. Be careful though because rookie Jayden Reed (E-16.6%) looked pretty good too. The big story here is Jordan Love looked good and has a pretty good schedule so you can probably fire up Doubs or Reed from time to time and they could be a nice bye-week fill-ins if needed.

Zay Jones JAC, WR (E-29.9%). Jones looked dynamic for being the “3rd” receiver on the team. The Jags are going to score a lot this year and look for Jones to be a part of it. Ridley is the alpha here but Jones may be the #2 WR based on the offensive structure. Worth an add to your bench if you have room.

The Rams. Matthew Stafford (E-29.8%) looked like Matthew Stafford which was a sight for sore eyes.  He had 334 yards in SEA. No TDs but they’ll come. The WRs I want are Tutu Atwell (E-5.9%) and Puka Nacua (E-28%). Avoid Van Jefferson (E-21.2%). He looked bad last year and picked up where he left off with another hideous drop. If I had to choose between Atwell and Nacua, I am probably going Atwell but it’s close. I’m also smashing the add button on Kyren Williams (E-10.3%) wherever I can find him. He looked much better than Akers and played 65% of snaps to Akers 35%. As you’ve probably heard, Akers went 22 carries for 29 yards, ooof.

Colts RB. Looks to see if Zack Moss (E-10.6%)is good to go this week or if they bring in another back, because Jackson is not the answer. Unfortunately, Evan Hull got hurt but he looked good in the little time we’ve seen him. He had one nice play called back. So if Taylor doesn’t play for the Colts again, keep an eye on Hull.

Joshua Kelley LAC, RB (E-11.4%). The Chargers have one of the best offenses in the league and Ekeler is missing some practice this week due to injury. If Kelley were to step in, look out! He looked great in week 1 with 91 yards on 16 carries and a TD.

Kenneth Gainwell PHI, RB (E-21.7%). He was the RB1 for Philly in week 1. While he got injured and may not play in week 2, he’s definitely someone the Eagles are going to count on this season. He had 14 carries and 16 routes run.

Deeper League Adds

These are players available in less than 15% of leagues. We won’t include players already listed, so if you see a player listed in one of the leagues above, go and get them.

Dawson Knox BUF, TE (E-13.3%). Knox and Kinkaid both played around 80% of snaps and both ran more than 37 routes. Knox will be involved with or without Kinkaid.

Adam Trautman DEN, TE (E-0.1%). Dulcich is out a few weeks and Trautman was already a fixture in the offense during the pre-season and week 1. He isn’t going to be a top-10 TE though so buyer beware but he’s servicable. He did have two redzone targets though.

Josh Reynolds DET, WR (E-0.4%). Reynolds looks solid in week 1 and had 21% TPRR and 2.76 YPRR, which was the best on the team. He’s not going to score a ton but in deep leagues could be enough. Tread lightly here but for under 1% owned, he’s a deal.

Kendre Miller NO, RB (E-6.9%). Jamaal Williams did not look so great in week 1, so if Miller can play week 2, he should get an opportunity to make an impact in week 2 and 3, while Kamara is out. I’d be buying Kamara where you can as well.

Rashid Shaheed NO, WR (E-2.1%). While he’s the third option in NO, they have a great schedule and he showed week 1 that he can put up fantasy points with 5 catches, 89 yards, and a TD. He looked good last year so week 1 didn’t come as a shock. He had a receiving grade on PFF of 76.5, which is very solid. Michael Thomas had a 65.9 grade on PFF, as a reference. Olave was at 81.4.

Calvin Austin PIT, WR (E-0.6%). With D. Johnson injured and out possible a few weeks, Austin may step in and get more targets. Pickens will be the WR1 and Robinson and Austin should battle for the remaining targets. Austin looked good in week 1 with 21% TPRR and 1.32 YPRR. He led the team with 6 catches, and 3 of them came after Johnson left.

Tyjae Spears TEN, RB (E-11.7%). Involved in the run and passing game, Spears looks to be a nice RB2 to stash or flex play when desperate. In week 1 he had a solid PFF run grade of 75.6. Henry is the lead back here but Spears was in for 54% of the snaps so he has value in deep leagues.

Players To Watch

These are players that are probably not ready to be added unless you’re in a massively deep league. We want to keep our eye on them in case there is any kind of injury on the team or if they continue to improve and be a bigger part of the offense.

1. Justin Watson KC, WR (E-0.1%). 11% target share in week 1, and a 25% TPRR. Looked more reliable than most of his counterparts. I said earlier I want very limited shared of KC WRs but this is something to monitor.

2. Deonte Harty BUF, WR (E-0.5%). It looks like Harty has the 3^rd WR role, with 13 routes run, to 0 from Sherfield and Shakir. He was targeted 31% of the time on his 13 routes ran, and had 3 catches. This is a potent offense and sometimes you want to get shares where you can.

3. Bryce Young CAR, QB (E-17.8%). His stat line wasn’t spectacular but I was impressed with this young man. He has room for growth but looked poised in the pocket, made some smart plays, and had some good throws. He doesn’t have the best weapons by any means but they may be playing down a lot and if he can continue to improve, he may be worth an add in leagues you are desperate for a QB.

4. Terrace Marshall Jr CAR, WR (E-0.6%). Marshall was on my deep sleeper list early in the summer but kind of fell off of it because he was absent during the preseason. He’s a big target and had a 19% share of his team’s targets in week 1, with an ADOT of 15.83.

5. Kendrick Bourne NE, WR (E-2.5). He led the team in targets but not sure how long that will last as Parker should be back soon. NE aren’t known for their pass game I want a ton of their WRs in managed leagues due to a tough schedule, and Mac Jones is still trying to prove himself. He had some highs and lows in week 1, but looked better than last year.

Players To Trade For

1. Zay Flowers BAL, WR (E-81.7%). See notes in the random stats section below.

2. DJ Moore CHI, WR (E-95.6%). If someone is panicking, you should buy low. He is explosive and they will need to try and force-feed him the ball if they want to win games. Don’t pay market value though, he will have some dud games, but see if you can get him on discount.

Notes from Week 1 of the 2023 NFL Season

ARI: Ertz had 33% of the team’s targets.

ATL: Pitts had an ADOT of 17.33. Allgeier had a slightly higher PFF Elusive Rating (PFF-ER) over Robinson. 101.9* to 96.9*.

BAL: Zay Flowers was incredible. 48% of the team’s targets, 36% TPPR, and 2.79 YPPR. For reference,  St. Brown has a YPPR was 1.97 in week 1. Justice Hill had 8 carries for 9 yards, and a bad PFF run grade of 49.9.

BUF: Diggs is awesome! Aside from that, it looks like Harty has the 3^rd WR role, with 13 routes run, to 0 from Sherfield and Shakir. He was targeted 31% of the time on his 13 routes ran. Latavius Murray was on the field more than Damien Harris, but not sure what that means yet, just a note.

CAR: Bryce Young looks better than I thought he would. He looked composed, made some nice throws, and smart plays. The stat line may not show it but I’d be pretty happy if I’m a Carolina fan. Hurst had 23% of the team’s targets and had 26% TPRR and 1.519 YPRR. As a reference, Evan Engram had 1.581 YPPR.

CHI: Mooney was the WR of choice in week 1 as Moore got shut down. The RBs almost split their time evenly among the three of them, which is frustrating for owners. R. Johnson probably looked the best of the three and PFF agreed with me as he had the highest PFF Run Grade of the three, with a 79.5, Herbet was 61.9, and Foreman 72.1.

CIN: Mixon looked good and had a PFF-ER of 82.2, which is on the higher end of week 1 backs.

CLE: Chubb was involved in the passing game with 14% of his team’s targets. Ford is not a threat. Chubb is a top 3 back.

DAL: The defense looks great. Cooks had 21% TPRR versus Gallup’s 11% TPRR, both ran 19 routes. This was a weird game though so I wouldn’t look too far into this one since the offense was on cruise control.  

DEN: Jeudy needs to come back. Lil’Jordon Humphrey came out of nowhere with 70% snaps played and 25 routes run. Mims only played 27% of snaps and ran 10 routes, yikes! He did have 20% TPRR though, keep an eye on him but it was interesting to see his limited playing time given his hype.

DET: Josh Reynolds is the WR 2 or 3 for now. 70% snap share and 29 routes to Jones’ 21. He had a nice PFF Rec grade of 70.8, which was actually better than St.Brown’s 69.4. Not saying he’s better than St. Brown, it’s not even a convo, but his metrics for week 1 were solid.

GB: Doubs looked great while only playing 48% of the snaps. He only ran 20 routes, was targeted on 25% of them and had two TDs. Obviously when Watson comes back, he won’t get the volume, but 2 TDs can’t be ignored.

HOU: Robery Woods had 36% of the Texans’ targets, and Collins had 25%. If you want a piece of the HOU pass game, it’s one of these two guys for now. I was more impressed with HOU’s defense than their offense, which isn’t saying much based on last year, but it’s a team moving in the right direction.

IND: Deon Jackson was AWFUL. He had three fumbles on the day. 13 attempts for 14 yards. Hull got hurt. Look for them to sign someone or use Moss if healthy.

JAX: Ridley.

KC: No WR had over 14% target share. Pacheco was the RB most involved with the passing game with 4 targets.

LAC: Ekeler looked great, but he may be a little banged up for week 2. Joshua Kelley is the clear #2 and looked really good when spelling Ekeler. Kelley had 16 carries for 91 yards. Q. Johnston was only on the field for 27% of snaps. Look for that to increase (I hope).

LAR: The story here was Kyren Williams at RB. Yes, the WRs Nacua and Atwell both had over 100 yards receiving but Williams was used in 65% of snaps compared to Akers’ 35%. Akers looked slow and dull. Williams outplayed him and looks to be the new RB1. You never know with the Rams though.

LV: Jakob Meyers! 38% of team targets. 42% TPRR. Let’s hope he’s ok.

MIA: Tyreek Hill is on another planet. 36% of the team’s targets and an incredible 6.14 YPRR. Mostert is holding down the RB duties. If Tua can stay healthy, he’s off to a hot start as well.

MIN: Jefferson had 3.19 YPRR which is exceptional and also shows you how crazy Hill’s stats were from week 1. CJ Ham had some moderate work out of the backfield but not worth rostering.

NE: Zeke and Rhamondre had about a 75/25 split in favor of Rhamondre but Zeke was in the game for some critical plays. He did have a fumble but looks like he’ll be involved in the passing and running game moving forward. He had 5 catches and Rhamondre had 6. With no Parker, Bourne led the receivers, not JuJu. Bourne had 11 targets to JuJu’s 7.

NO: Olave had 30% of the team’s targets but even better news is that Michael Thomas looked good as well and seems to be healthy. Thomas ran 32 routes and was targeted on 20% of those routes. Shaheed joined in the mix with 6 targets on 25 routes and 1 TD. They have a nice trio of WRs.

NYG: Waller had to leave with an injury so monitor him. He tied for the team lead with 17% of the target share. He was tied with Parris Campbell. This was an awful game to try and gauge anything. Their schedule is the toughest in the league, so temper expectations for all Giants.

NYJ: Rodgers is out. I feel for him and the Jets’ fans. I am not touching Wilson though. The run game is going to be busy, that’s all I can say. This really hurts their receivers.

PHI:  Gainwell was on the field twice as much as Swift was, and had 14 carries to Swift’s one. Gainwell got hurt though. With Penny being a healthy scratch, this looks to be a frustrating backfield to own. For the price though, Gainwell came at a deal.

PIT: Najee played 52% of snaps and Warren played 40% of snaps. Neither looked good as the entire team was a mess, but Najee definitely outplayed Warren this time. Let’s see what happens in week 2.

SEA: Noah Fant was not involved with the Seahawks offense at all. Dissley ran 9 routes and Parkinson ran 10. Fant had 0. Walker led the backfield with Charobonnet having a quiet game.

SF: Holy Brandon Aiyuk! He had an epic WR1 alpha game. Samuel ran four more routes than Aiyuk but Aiyuk finished with 129 yards to Samuel’s 55. This could be Aiyuk’s big season his stans have been waiting for.

TB: Baker Mayfield looked better than expected and could provide value for the TB receivers. It was nice to see pre-season darling, Trey Palmer, involved with 16 routes run.

TEN: Spears was the surprise for the Titans, being on the field more than Henry. It looks like he’ll be involved to give the big RB1 a break, who is getting up there in RB years. Looks to be a nice 1 to 2 punch. Tannehill looked pretty bad, which caused all of the WRs and TEs to not look great either. Hopkins and Henry were really the only players doing anything on offense.

WAS: Logan Thomas is back and healthy, playing 82% of snaps. He also had 7 targets and 4 catches. I am a Cole Turner believer so I want to wait to see another game before I go talking about adding Thomas in the deep leagues. Robinson was the clear RB1 on this team and even had more targets than Gibson. Gibson had another fumble to start the year.

See you after week 2!

Key:

ADOT = Average Depth of Target

PFF Elusive Rating (PFF-ER): PFF Elusive Rating, which pulls carries, receptions, forced missed tackles and yards after contact into a formula to calculate a rating similar to passer rating, is meant to illustrate a running back’s elusiveness in a singular number. The formula: (Forced Missed Tackles) / (Carries + Receptions) * (Yards After Contact per Attempt * 100).

Targets Per Route Run (TPPR)

Yards Per Route Run (YPPR)

PFF Receiving Grades explained: https://www.pff.com/news/pro-how-pff-grades-receiving

PFF Rushing Grades explained: https://www.pff.com/news/pro-how-pff-grades-running-backs