Should you add or drop a player after week 1?
As I always start every fantasy football conversation, “it depends”. Not all leagues are built the same so be aware that not all add/drop advice will apply to you. Even if you hear someone say “10-team league” or “12-team league”, those leagues can have different roster sizes or scoring. Instead, I like to call leagues “deep” or “shallow”, versus referring just to the league size. A deep league has a combination of more teams and/or more roster spots than average, and a shallow league has fewer teams and/or roster spots than normal. A deep league can be an 8 or 10-team league with extensive bench spots. Or a shallow league can be a 12-team league with almost no bench spots. In other words, how many teams are in your league is only part of the puzzle.
What really matters is your waiver wire and how many players are available. If you look at the waiver wire and see the only players available are owned in less than 2% of leagues, you are in a deep league. If you see available players are plentiful, and you can grab several players available in 30%-50% of leagues, then you’re in a shallow league. You have more flexibility in shallow leagues because if you make a mistake, you can probably go find a decent player on the waiver wire. If you’re in a deep league and accidentally drop a good player, it will be harder for you to recover from the mistake as he’ll get snagged quickly and there probably won’t be anyone comparable available.
The first few weeks are complicated. You’ll hear people say not to panic or overreact positively or negatively, and that is smart advice. You’ll also hear people say making the right moves wins leagues. As Kenny Rodgers said, “you’ve got to know when to hold’em, and know when to fold’em.” Week 1 is not too early to drop a player but it can also be a horrible decision. I’ll try and help provide some guidance in this article. I’ll share my advice week to week as to who to add, drop, trade, or watch.
One major difference I see between winning team managers and losing team managers is stubbornness. Winning teams aren’t afraid to make moves, trades, or cut ties with a player. They take calculated risks and are open to fair offers. Losing teams will go down with a sinking ship by holding on to players whom they should have dropped or traded. They’ll receive fair or even favorable offers, and completely disregard them. I am not 100% sure why they do this but every league has a few of these types of players. They feel their players are elite when they really might not be. I am not sure if they are too proud to admit they may have drafted a bad player, if they are scared to look foolish by making a bad decision, or if they think their poop doesn’t stink. Either way, be open to offers and adding/dropping players. Don’t be stubborn.
Another item fantasy managers need to grasp in head-to-head managed leagues is the startability of a player. Players with high floors are great players to start. High-floor players have a low likelihood of having a bust game, and they also have good points per game average. They are usually scoring a respectable amount of points in every game. They are consistent.
Players who are low-floor players are ones we call a boom or bust, or spike or dud type of player. They are inconsistent players. Some weeks they have a solid fantasy output and others they have an awful output. I want to avoid these types of players when playing in head-to-head leagues. They are frustrating to own because you never know when to start or bench them. To me, Gabe Davis is the definition of this type of player. Maybe you can afford to have one of these players on your team, and start them when the match-up is right but having multiple of them on your roster is a headache and will cost you match-ups.
Players who are in a committee or buried on the depth chart can also be a type of low-floor player because you never know when they are going to get enough volume to produce the numbers you need. Buried/committee players are often more valuable than just standard low-floor players who may have no competition for playing time. The good buried/committee players aren’t low-scoring because of a lack of talent, it’s because of a lack of playing time. Sometimes these players can have stand-alone value but often they are seen as more of a handcuff player. For them to pay off, you’d need a teammate to have an injury. It probably goes without saying, but what you don’t want is a buried/committee player who is boom or bust, even if they get playing time. I look at this type of player like Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He’s currently in a committee on KC, and even if a few KC receivers went down, he’d still be a boom-or-bust player. An example of a player whom I’d want is Rashid Shaheed. He’s the third receiver on the depth chart but if someone gets hurt ahead of him, he could have great value. Until he moves up on the depth chart, he will have some boom or bust games, but if given the opportunity, he could be a high-floor player.
Week 1 is tricky because teams are still gathering their footing. If a player has a history of solid play but fizzles in week 1, don’t panic. If you were questionable about a player before week 1 and they fizzled in week 1, maybe you should cut bait. A good rule is not to drop a guy if he’s owned in way more leagues than all of the players on the waiver wire. It doesn’t mean you can’t or shouldn’t, but it’s a signal you should probably try and trade them first. If the player you want to bail on is owned in 74% of leagues but most players on the waivers are owned in 30% or less, you need to be careful. Sounds like you could potentially be drafting someone who can turn things around. If you have a player 10% owned and most players on waivers are 30% owned, I wouldn’t worry about dropping them. Either way, the worst is dropping a player too soon and your opponent picks them up and uses them against you. On the flip side, I like dropping a player and having an opponent pick them up, only to find out the player is a complete dud.
If your roster can afford it, try to hang on to players after week 1, until you can see week 2. That is of course if you did your studying before the draft. If you just blindly went into your draft, maybe you made a mistake and just move on from it as soon as you can. If you had some major injuries or someone is obviously not going to be a part of the offense, then don’t be afraid to move on during week 1, especially if the player’s history doesn’t stand out. Your bench size plays a huge role in when to add or drop players.
Hopefully this helps clear up a few questionable areas when adding or dropping players, especially in week 1. If you have any add/or drop questions, feel free to email us at info@heavyweightfantasyfootball.com
